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Author Topic: What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)  (Read 2522 times)

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AndrewB01

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What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)
« on: March 10, 2016, 10:49:37 PM »
Got stopped out twice last night on the GBPAUD between 17:00 and 21:00 (Sydney - time) so I thought I'd take a break. I thought I had two good trades but it looks like it must have been the bottom of the trend. Is it turning around now on the long term? I didn't think there was any news coming out that day to make it take off in the other direction?

Just want to know what to look out for in the future.

Cheers

DavidF

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Re: What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)
« Reply #1 on: March 13, 2016, 01:27:47 AM »
Andrew - looking at the GBPAUD chart, my take is that you've picked a pretty flat and featureless period and you've been caught up in the choppiness. I'm guessing from the wording of your post that you were short and were stopped out by an up move. If you look at the ADR lines you'll see that for almost all of the 1700 - 2100 hr time slot you were on the wrong side of the -75% line, so the probability of a successful short trade was low.

If you squash your 10 pip chart right up you'll see that GBPAUD had been in a gentle, overall down-trend for about a week and yes, it did sort of bottom late in the day.

For future? I would:
a)  Look for a more defined trend, to improve the probability of your trading in the right direction;
b)  Look for an area where the Guppies have a much greater degree of separation and therefore a greater opportunity for compression, rollover and a tradeable move;
c)  Make sure that you're trading between the ADR lines and in the direction of the greater opportunity or, if you're outside the 75% line, that you're not trading away from the line.

You said you "didn't think there was any news coming out that day . . . " Was that from looking at a news calendar or just from market understanding? In case it's the latter I'd recommend that you use a calendar. I personally use forexfactory but there's an abundance of them out there; choose one that suits you and check it every day before you start committing $ to the market.
« Last Edit: March 13, 2016, 02:55:33 AM by DavidF »

AndrewB01

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Re: What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)
« Reply #2 on: March 13, 2016, 05:47:22 AM »
Thanks David, that's a great help.

I read one of your other posts and decided to change the pairs I trade with a smaller pip range as you suggested to someone else. Just until I get the hang of it. AEST also seems to be a slow time to trade so i might just wait until night as well.

I'm still getting use to reading the Guppy signals for what will spring away and what will roll over.

Cheers
Andrew

DavidF

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Re: What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)
« Reply #3 on: March 13, 2016, 12:24:57 PM »
I agree with you re the timing Andrew. Daytime AEST, or AWST, yields too few opportunities to make it worth watching the screens. If your circumstances allow it, wait until London's open. I forget the exact time but it's currently around 1900hr your time - maybe 1930. You'll then have a far more active market to work with, especially if you can hang out until NY opens as well. And if you're really on a roll - hang in there 'til daylight, when NY closes!

Neil

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Re: What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)
« Reply #4 on: March 14, 2016, 12:04:33 PM »
I am aware of more than one trader in your neck of the woods who do this, literally stay up until sunrise to catch the moves. One of whom is Ryan, Daryl's son...Not sure if that is going to motivate you or not, but its true. :)

AndrewB01

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Re: What happended to the GBPAUD last night? (Aussie time)
« Reply #5 on: March 14, 2016, 11:30:51 PM »
Thanks Neil and David.

I will admit the charts look much more appealing during that time  :D. Once I get the basics sorted and can get on the right side of more trades I will probably be tempted to burn the midnight oil.

Cheers